The KPIs You Can Use To 2x Your Box Office Target
Ben Johnson
Updated on 07/12/2023

Predicting box office outcomes with any certainty has always been a challenge for movie distributors. The major studios often lean into the legacy metrics of awareness, interest and first choice from their main research provider (NRG,OTX).  These studies are conducted across panels, typically of one thousand general cinemagoers, to predict the box office outcome in major markets only. 

This approach is commonplace; it provides some indicative direction on the big releases, but post pandemic is less effective across non-blockbuster level movies. This type of forecasting is limited by sample size, availability outside of the major markets and price (it is expensive). The biggest flaw though is it leaves the most important part of the purchase funnel out of the analysis - ticket transactions. The second issue is size, the panel approach leaves out the broadest and most insightful part of your marketing campaign - how your media campaign performs. By combining media performance and ticket transactions Gruvi is developing a more robust and accurate approach to box office outcome modelling.    

Gruvi is looking for partners in 2023 to join a beta to take advantage of the tools and approach we have pioneered. Our approach uses the broadest set of live data, rather than the small and limited panel data being used currently. The live data from your digital media campaign is scored against key KPIs of engagement and purchase intent to model box office outcomes. 

The analysis of audience behavioural data is conducted through The Audience Project (TAP) - our global film Audience Data Management Platform.  This ever-growing data pool has helped us to develop a series of online campaign benchmarks (Per territory and film genre) to identify if a film is likely to reach its potential sales targets during the theatrical opening. This pioneering tool will allow studios of all sizes to accurately gauge their media and the audience's perception of the film, weeks out from the opening weekend. 

TAP helps distributors leverage audience behaviour and engagement, to make sense of marketing activities so that they can 

  • Identify if the campaign is on track to driving audience interest
  • Determine whether that audience interest is at sufficient volume to hit B.O. target
  • Identify issues with the campaign that need addressing (targeting, channel strategies, creative, messaging etc) in order to improve performance

For partners looking to join the beta, we encourage campaigns that run in both awareness and conversion phases. 

The diagram below illustrates our modelled approach to predicting box office outcomes with the need for additional research services, but using the power of your media campaign. 

If you want to take control of your business forecasting with more accuracy please contact us to see if you are eligible for the beta launching Q1 2023. 

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The KPIs You Can Use To 2x Your Box Office Target