Gruvi Podcast Australia
Ben Johnson
Updated on 29/11/2023

Tracking audience engagement and ticketing demand can give a good prediction about Box office openings for your film ahead of its release. Gruvi is building tools that track audience engagement and predict ticket sales from your marketing activities. You can read an introduction to our tools and to this case study here. You can also book a meeting with us here to discuss the findings below.

Key Findings in Australia

In the previous segments to this series we demonstrated a series of Key Performance Indicators that can be used to assess the effectiveness of the campaign at driving interest in the film, ticketing and the overall sentiment of the audience towards the film in order to determine how well the film will perform in Box Office.

To illustrate our findings the following table comprises the films we worked on in Australia in 2022 where budgets were sufficient to reach the target audiences.

FilmAction RateLink clicks/Actions shareLink clicks/ImpressionsShowtime Interaction RateShowtime Exit Rate
How to Please a Woman8.64%15.48%1.34%16.18%4.26%
The Duke11.44%10.50%1.21%8%1.28%
Falling For Figaro5.96%12.09%0.73%8.89%1.75%
Mothering Sunday5.84%14.55%0.85%6.30%1.44%
Operation Mincemeat9.14%10.34%0.94%4.43%1.90%
Here Out West7.13%6.79%0.48%29.60%5.30%
Girl at the Window4.50%10.50%0.48%14.06%1.60%
True Things5.13%8.75%0.46%14.91%1.62%
Three Thousand Years of Longing2.90%9.44%0.28%8.68%1.53%
Last Seen Alive3.50%23.28%0.82%3.80%1.43%
Gray Man7.02%6.16%0.44%3.82%0.54%
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1/3 of the films in the above table exceeded the action rate benchmark in Australia, however 2/3 of all films exceeded the average showtime interaction rate. How to Please a Woman was the only film meeting all 5 KPIs, with The Duke falling slightly behind with 4 KPIs met. Falling For Figaro and Sundown are two other titles meeting 3 KPIs, the rest of the films met only 2 KPIs and failed to meet more than one.

As stated at the beginning of this study, if the film is not meeting the 3 initial KPIs in these early stages of the campaign, they are less likely to meet the ticketing demand. Three Thousand Years of Longing’s and True Things’, showtimes interaction rates were all above average despite not meeting any of the pre-showtime KPIs. This again suggests that the given films are so niche and the overall size of the audiences is so small that they are unlikely to make up distributor’s sales and box office requirements.

Key Findings Australia

  • A strong measurement of film potential success is when all KPIs are met, in our case only How To Please A Woman and The Duke are the only campaigns meeting major KPIs and are also the only titles exceeding predicted box office results.
  • If 3 KPIs are met, it is likely that the film will gain some traction, however, very unlikely to exceed distributor’s expectations in sales. Falling For Figaro and Sundown are examples of such cases.
  • If the first KPIs which assess audience engagement are not met at the early stages of the film campaign, the trend follows later on. Even though if the ticketing demand is good, the total audience group investigating sessions, are too small to make up the required sales.

Interested to know whether YOUR film is on track to meet Box Office targets before it is released?/- Book a meeting with us here.

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Gruvi Podcast Australia